Understanding Craps Streaks
| Updated: The Role of Streaks in Craps
Throughout its existence, craps has gradually become one of the most traditional casino games, which is why you will hardly encounter a casino—be it brick-and-mortar or online—that has not included the game in its portfolio. In fact, craps ranks among the most enthralling and captivating dice games, as gambling enthusiasts simply have to wager on the outcome of a toss of two dice. Even though this may not sound like a big deal, the wide variety of betting options often keeps rookies away from the craps tables.
Inexperienced craps fans who are still learning the nuts and bolts of the game should keep in mind that they need to pay special attention to streaks, as these can greatly influence their betting sessions. In essence, streaks are a vital part of playing craps, and when you use them appropriately, they can be the stepping stone to better results. If you fail to exploit streaks properly, you can do serious damage to your bankroll, which is why you should strive to learn the ropes.
This guide aims to help craps players manage streaks properly. We will also discuss the concept of the gambler’s fallacy and the randomness of every single roll of the dice. Additionally, we will explain how variance affects the so-called hot and cold streaks. Last but not least, we will share helpful tips for an entertaining and rewarding gaming session.
Craps Streaks Explained
In most cases, a streak is described as an event whose chances of occurring more than once in a row are roughly 50%. Let’s take a coin toss as an example and presume that you flip it at least ten times. If, eventually, heads and tails alternate, it means there was no streak during those flips.
As it turns out, one of the most common misconceptions among gambling enthusiasts is that if a particular event has occurred several times, its opposite automatically becomes more likely. It is important to note that such beliefs can greatly affect your gambling experience. It does not matter how many times a specific event has occurred—the probabilities still stand at 50%.
While playing craps in a brick-and-mortar casino, you should know that the average number of rolls per shooter is 8.525510, meaning the dice will remain in one player’s hands for about eight and a half rounds. Naturally, the number of rolls per hour varies between casinos and tables, and the pace of the game is determined mainly by the proficiency of the casino staff.
In simple terms, “seven out” describes occasions when a 7 is thrown before the shooter rolls the point number. The probability of this happening is 2 in 200 rolls. When it occurs, Don’t Pass bets win, Pass bets lose, and the dice move to the next player.
Let’s see how we arrived at these numbers. First, consider how many rolls are needed for a Pass Line decision to be made. The decision is made in one roll if a natural appears on the come-out roll. The probability of this is 12/36. If a 4 comes out on the next roll, the probability of that is 3/36. The chances of such bets being settled on subsequent rolls are 9/36 because three dice combinations make 4 and six combinations make 7.
Therefore, these bets will be resolved after 4 rolls (9/36), but remember to include the come-out roll. After making similar calculations for the other point numbers—5, 6, 8, 9, and 10—and adding the odds of rolling any craps number, the expected number of rolls for a Pass Line decision is 557/165, or about 3.376.
To find out how many decisions occur per seven out, we need to consider the probabilities of winning and losing. A seven out is a failure, while establishing a point, rolling a natural, or rolling craps counts as success. Putting these probabilities together gives us 495/196, or about 2.5255. Multiplying the expected number of rolls per decision by the number of decisions per seven out yields 1671/196, or roughly 8.5255.
| Number of Rolls | Probability of pulling through | Probability of 7 being thrown out |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| 2 | 0.88888889 | 0.11111111 |
| 3 | 0.77211934 | 0.11676955 |
| 4 | 0.66735254 | 0.10476680 |
| 5 | 0.57612891 | 0.09122363 |
To keep things simple, let’s use roulette as an example and assume you decide to place bets on black and red, where the odds are again roughly 50/50. Now, let’s say you have decided to use the Martingale betting system, one of the oldest and most popular betting methods, which can be utilized not only in craps but also in many other casino games. The system is so well-liked because it allows players to recoup their losses and even turn a profit. It works quite straightforwardly: after every loss, you simply place a bet that is twice as large. Eventually, you are making increasingly bigger wagers—much to the house’s benefit.
Although many gamblers are tempted by the idea of recouping their losses, many experienced casino fans consider the Martingale system disadvantageous and recommend avoiding it. According to this system, players must stick to a specific minimum bet and keep placing it until they lose.
As stated above, when that happens, you must double your initial bet. If you lose again, you double once more. Gambling aficionados should continue in this manner until a win occurs. Thus, if you experience five losses but make one winning bet, you could still be ahead. This is where many gamblers are misled, believing they have won without beating the casino odds.
If we go further and presume you suffer nine consecutive losses, the Martingale dictates that you should end up betting $10,230, while your profit at this point is only $90. This is a prime example of how not to manage streaks while playing craps because you can easily exhaust your bankroll without realizing it.
Instead of doubling your bet after a loss, experienced gamblers advise increasing your stake after a win. To cope with losing streaks, simply allow them to run their course so your bankroll lasts longer.
Gambler’s Fallacy
One of the most important things to remember about casino games, including craps, is that you should avoid the gambler’s fallacy; otherwise, you can easily become trapped.
Perhaps you are wondering what the gambler’s fallacy is. We touched on it earlier—you just didn’t know its name. Many gambling enthusiasts erroneously believe that in games with fixed odds, recent events can influence future outcomes. In such cases, players often say that a certain event is “due” meaning it is about to occur. You may have heard someone say they will take down their Place bet because 7 hasn’t appeared recently and, therefore, is due.
If a 5 appears on this roll, that does not mean it cannot appear on the next roll as well. Dice have no memory, which is why the chances of a 5 appearing again remain unchanged and are the same as for any other number. You should steer clear of the gambler’s fallacy because it can lead you to make bets or moves you would normally avoid.
Variance in Craps
If you are not a complete rookie at playing craps—or casino games in general—you probably know what “house edge” means. It describes the advantage the house has over you in a specific game. One reason so many players choose craps is that it has a lower house edge compared with many other games available in land-based and online casinos.
Still, many casino fans do not know what the key to some players’ success is. This is where the term “variance” comes in. It indicates how likely results are to deviate from the game’s house edge—in other words, the likelihood of specific outcomes occurring.
Now, let’s return to the example of flipping a coin. If tails equal losses and heads equal wins, over the long term the numbers of wins and losses will be roughly the same. Because wins occur so frequently, the game is considered low variance. In a low-variance game, instead of chasing huge prizes while losing more often, you can expect modest wins quite regularly.
If you prefer collecting modest prizes on a regular basis, table games are what you are looking for. In fact, craps is among the lowest-variance games, but players should remember that it is all about statistics and math. Like every other casino game, craps is designed so that math works against you. Knowing this gives you a slight edge because you can plan accordingly, but you still cannot beat the house in the long run.
Now, let’s return to the coin toss and presume that a total of 30 flips have taken place. Because the sample size is relatively small, the results might be skewed—for instance, tails may appear more often than heads. Even though you might expect an equal number of heads and tails, the small sample size can produce different results. Thus, if 30 flips result in 25 heads and 5 tails, the variance is simply doing its job, as the observed results deviate from the expected 50/50 split.
Applying this to craps over a short session, variance can swing in your favor at any moment, potentially allowing you to clobber the casino. However, this is possible only if you avoid playing for hours on end. Your chances of better results diminish during prolonged play because, eventually, your winning and losing streaks will even out—just as they do with hundreds of coin flips.
Tips for Playing Craps
Craps is beloved by gambling enthusiasts for many reasons, the main one being that it has a relatively small house edge if you know which bets to place. Moreover, it is highly entertaining and, for the most part, a game of chance, meaning there is almost nothing you can do to guarantee better results. Still, we have compiled several tips you can use while playing craps to tilt the odds slightly in your favor.
First, focus on the fun side of the game. If you have played craps before, you know it is extremely engaging. When joining a craps table, be prepared both to win and to lose. As long as you emphasize the fun, you will enjoy yourself regardless of the results.
One of the prerequisites for playing craps is knowing the different types of wagers available to you. If you are a beginner, stick to the most basic bet types; once you feel comfortable, it will be easier to broaden your horizons by learning how the other betting options work. Additionally, acquaint yourself with possible dice combinations and the odds of rolling each—this knowledge can greatly influence your play.
Another way to improve your results is practising at an online casino while you are taking your first steps in the game. Even though craps is not difficult, joining a crowded table in a land-based casino can be intimidating if you are unsure of the next move. Online play offers greater comfort and minimizes the stress of making mistakes.
Discipline is another major aspect of playing craps. This tip applies to all casino games: always know your limits. Whether you are winning or losing, avoid increasing your bets solely to win more or recoup losses. Otherwise, you may quickly burn through your money. Bet only amounts you are comfortable with.