Baccarat Ratios
| Updated: Using Ratios to Make Betting Decisions in Baccarat
Baccarat is a casino game that many high rollers enjoy. Its rules are extremely simple, each round takes only a few seconds to reveal the result, and the betting limits often suit high-stakes enthusiasts. Despite its high-roller reputation, baccarat also offers a great gaming experience to recreational players who prefer less risky bets. The simplicity of the game also makes baccarat suitable for inexperienced players, as the only decision required is which bet to place on each coup.
Although baccarat requires no special skills, some players use advanced betting strategies to minimize losses and prolong their gaming sessions. While there is no way to predict the outcome in baccarat, some players track trends to help them decide where to place their next bet. Scorecards are commonly used to spot trends, and ratios can help determine whether it is optimal to ride a run or bet against it.
What are Baccarat Ratios?
Baccarat ratios are calculated from the player’s scorecard and the basic logic of the game. Although three outcomes are possible on every hand, your wager effectively has a 50-50 chance of being correct. Ties result in a push, so most players exclude them and base their strategy on the idea that the game resembles a coin flip.
However, in reality shoes are rarely so orderly—you will not always see neat patterns you can rely on, because this is a game of chance. You can use statistics to your advantage, but you will never be able to predict the outcome of the next hand with absolute certainty. It is essential to understand this and abandon the idea that there is a way to ‘beat the game’.
You can also create general ratios from the overall frequency of events across many games, giving you a baseline probability. If you wonder about the chances of a specific event occurring, the baseline provides a reasonable estimate. However, it is best to adjust this baseline to the shoe in play.
Many players believe that a shoe will always deal hands that eventually balance out. While this is practically true, shoes can deviate considerably from the baseline in the meantime. There have been instances of unlikely events, such as 13 ties in a row or 18 consecutive Bank wins. Relying solely on the idea that the shoe will return to baseline is not enough to outpace your losses.
Of course, by the end of the shoe the numbers of Player and Bank wins will even out, but before then, especially with multiple decks in play, they can vary greatly. The key is to focus on the shoe as a whole and base ratios on singletons versus runs.
How to Calculate Baccarat Ratios
Ratios are calculated throughout the game. At the start, the ratio is 1:1, whether the shoe opens with a run or a singleton. As additional runs appear, they are added to the tally. Eventually the numbers may even out again, at which point you must rely on strategy or the current ‘trend’ to guide your bets.
Once the game has progressed, a clear gap usually appears between the two numbers. As noted, these ratios track singletons versus runs, not Player versus Bank results. Some players focus on the number of Player versus Bank wins, but that approach is rarely lucrative. Occasionally, the Bank dominates almost the entire game. If you keep betting on Player in such a shoe, you will keep losing; but if you recognize the anomaly, you can either ‘ride the pony’ or wait for the next shoe.
Basing your bets on this ratio offers no guarantees, but it generally makes more sense. The tricky part is estimating how long a run will last, choosing the right strategy for the current ratio, and deciding whether to bet on the shoe balancing itself. There is no universal advice regarding baccarat ratios. In one shoe a 5:3 ratio might suggest one approach, while in another it could mean something entirely different.
Most baccarat strategies revolve around the search for balance—namely, the expectation that the shoe will contain an average number of runs and singletons. It is crucial to understand what this means and to examine the percentages. Runs of two are the most common, so row two on your scorecard will be about 50% full, while rows three, four, and beyond will appear less frequently.
We have not discussed ties extensively, because they are usually excluded from betting strategies—they result in a push and are not counted as winning hands. Unless you specifically bet on them (which we do not recommend), ties occur only about once every eleven hands, and the payout is 8 to 1. This might be the casino’s silent way of taking its commission. Player and Bank bets carry lower commissions and occur far more often, so we recommend you focus on them.
Step-By-Step Explanation
Suppose the Bank wins the first hand. Because it is the beginning of the shoe, there is nothing to go on, so all you can do is guess. Next, Player wins—so far we have two singletons. Player wins again, creating a run. The ratio is now 1:1 (singletons to runs). The question is whether the run will continue. Bank wins the next hand, making the ratio 2:1. Player wins, moving the ratio to 3:1. Bank then wins three times in a row, changing the ratio to 3:2. Finally, Player wins twice consecutively, bringing the ratio to 3:3. Using these ratios and the various baccarat strategies, which we have also covered for you, you can place more informed bets, minimize your losses, and even walk away a winner.
How Baccarat Ratios Affect Strategy
Ratios directly influence every baccarat strategy because they help players decide how to proceed. Each situation calls for a different approach, and a player must recognize these moments and adapt. Most strategies rely largely on the number of singletons versus runs. They demand precision, which is why it is so important to keep a detailed scorecard.
As noted, many baccarat strategies revolve around the balance of the shoe. Most advocate betting against an imbalance, based on the idea that a run cannot last forever and betting against it is a sure winner. Of course, no bet is a sure winner in a game of chance. Other strategies exploit a large imbalance by ‘riding the pony’—betting that the current trend will continue. Some consider this unwise, yet the same outcome repeating is just as likely as the run ending after three or four hands. After all, the chances are 50-50—well, not exactly.
The point of keeping score and calculating ratios is to gauge whether one outcome is more likely than another. For example, if the shoe has already produced many runs, another long run is unlikely—though not impossible. It is important to remember that. If no runs have appeared for a significant portion of the game, a rare event may be imminent. At that moment, remember there is no certainty—you cannot know how long the run will last—so most strategies recommend that you stop betting.
Ratios and Basic Strategy
Basic baccarat strategy revolves around betting against an imbalance in the shoe. To know when to apply it, you must monitor the ratios. This is not a long-term strategy; you are expected to quit at some point if you use it. To succeed, you must learn to apply different strategies at precisely the right moments. That said, ratios help indicate when a run is unlikely to continue and when betting against it might be wise. Again, keep in mind that ratios will not give you any definitive answers.
Ratios and Advanced Strategy
Most advanced baccarat strategies are designed for high rollers, yet there are times when a low-risk player may need to employ them as well. There are ways to spot when a run might last longer than the average two or three hands. To do so, you need more than ratios; you also need some basic baccarat statistics. For example, it helps to know that, in a single game, two-in-a-row runs occur nine to eleven times roughly 47.7% of the time.
One advanced strategy again bets against the shoe’s imbalance, like the basic method, but involves placing additional bets. It is intended for players who can afford to sustain the basic strategy even when rare events occur. This involves placing successive bets and doubling them until the run ends. Ratios help this strategy in a number of ways. For instance, one can use ratios to calculate the probability of the run continuing until the end of the shoe. One key thing to remember while keeping track of runs is that you should never bet against a run past the middle of the shoe.
Other advanced strategies, as previously mentioned, include riding the pony. When you spot a statistically plausible trend, you may choose to keep betting on it. Naturally, this does not mean increasing your stake with every hand in the run. Instead, after a win, take back your original stake and leave only the winnings on the table. That way, you will either win again or walk away with your initial bankroll intact.
Now, after you have done this for a few hands, you will see that the odds are definitely not in favor of this run continuing. At that point, you can either lower your bet or remove it entirely. Of course, some people let their bet ride and watch it double, triple, or quadruple. If you are willing—and able—to take that risk, go ahead. These things happen. However, it is far more likely that players who accumulate a mountain of chips will eventually lose them by making reckless bets.
The same applies to people who decide to ride the pony and lose a large sum because of a gut feeling—although, to be fair, many of them are intoxicated, wealthy guests at luxury casinos. Of course, ordinary players make the same mistake, which is why you need a solid money-management strategy. It takes discipline to set realistic targets, stick to them, and walk away once you have reached them, but it is essential.
How to Win by Using Baccarat Ratios
After reviewing how ratios work, you will see how they can help you win. You can spot trends quickly and recognize the possibilities for the next hand. In many cases, shoes are imbalanced and display a clear trend, such as a sharp 7:1 ratio of singletons.
However, as noted, baccarat is a game of chance, and the odds remain close to 50-50. At this point, you may question the reliability of ratios, percentages, or trends in baccarat. The point is not that ratios are 100% accurate or will unfailingly predict the next hand. Rather, mathematics limits the number of possibilities, and probability is the only tool you can rely on when gambling.
Therefore, even if the ratio reaches an extreme like 23:1 for singletons, it does not guarantee that another singleton will follow—or, conversely, that the shoe will balance out with a run. The only thing that ratios tell you is which outcome is more probable. You may encounter rare events such as an entire shoe of singletons or a string of ties. But if you remain rational and stick to logical bets, you should finish with more wins than losses.
Conclusion
Every baccarat player should keep track of ratios. They support every strategy and help you recognize when to switch approaches. There is no universal way to win at baccarat; however, with mathematics, you can learn to play in a way that maximizes wins and minimizes losses. Placing the right bet involves more than strategy or ratios; it depends on many factors unique to each shoe. Numbers alone are not enough, so you will need experience before betting on every hand in a shoe. And, of course, some good old-fashioned luck.