Investment bank JP Morgan assessed that Macau’s EBITDA for Q3 reached about 80% of the pre-pandemic numbers in 2019. According to JP Morgan’s financial analysts, the said increase in industry-wide EBITDA is aided by the huge gaming industry in Macau.
On Monday, following the recent publishing of Macau’s September GGR numbers, which indicated a 13% decline compared to the previous month, reaching MOP$14.94 billion, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li evaluated the Q3 ended in September as a period marking a 3% GGR increase compared to Q2 results.
When compared to pre-pandemic figures, the September GGR was only back to 69% of the levels back in 2019. However, the EBITDA for that period represented 80% of the pre-COVID levels, with the GGR increase being a driving force for Macau’s Q3 EBITDA growth.
JP Morgan’s analysts compared the Q3 results to numbers generated for the previous quarter and assessed that Macau’s gaming revenue had a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase, reaching almost 94% of the pre-pandemic levels, which offset the 3% decrease in VIP GGR.
Analysts commented on the September results by saying that the Q3 numbers were a little shy of initial predictions but the bad weather in September can be partially blamed for this. Despite that, JP Morgan financial experts believe that the mass GGR in Macau will fully go back to its pre-COVID levels during the Golden Week, which started last weekend and will continue for eight days.
Macau Visitors During the Beginning of Golden Week May Increase GGR to Pre-Pandemic Levels
On Saturday, just as the Golden Week period was starting, Macau welcomed 158,726 visitors, marking a post-pandemic high with a year-on-year increase of 473%. This was a very promising start to this year’s Golden Week holiday, which is also one of the events that many believe would help Macau’s GGR go back to levels, which were recorded before the COVID pandemic.
According to data released by the Public Security Police Force, with the new arrivals on Saturday, the total number of visitors during the first two days of the Golden Week holiday amounted to 246,815. When analysts cross-checked the arrivals recorded during the first two days of Golden Week in 2022 to the number of visitors this year, there was a 394% increase. However, when compared to the 257,600 arrivals recorded in the first two days during the same holiday in 2019, the current numbers reflect a 4.2% decrease.
Of the total 246,815 arrivals this year, 166,839 were from mainland China, marking a 329% year-on-year increase. There was also a surge of arrivals from Hong Kong, which amounted to 61,421, reflecting a 1,575% year-on-year jump. With this year’s increased number of visitors during the Golden Week, the majority of analysts believe that Macau’s October revenue figures will indicate a significant GGR increase, which may even go back to pre-pandemic levels.